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It's not known exactly why the Spanish flu was so fatal. Many things contribute to complications from sickness, especially the kind that infect the respiratory system, such as pollution, for example. While such things aren't an excuse, it's important to know that a) we don't completely understand why some viruses kill more than others, and b) it doesn't take a 'super bug' to cause a pandemic. Pandemics happen because the human population is vulnerable to a new strain, and that strain transmits easily. This is why when looking at the data about the COVID-19 it is easy to conclude that it is just another cold virus. And it is! It just so happens that for whatever reason, a certain age group is vulnerable. We don't know why that is just yet.

 

No matter how you slice it, the COVID-19 will probably not go away until we all develop an immunity to it, or die. All these precautions are fine, but, I'm afraid in many cases, such as with the Spanish flu, they only delay the inevitable. This virus is airborne, and it can be transmitted by people that are infected for days before they even experience any symptoms. Other diseases such as the H1N1 and SARS did not have this dramatic 'incubation' period. Typically, people were infectious when they felt sick, so those were relatively easy to contain. The COVID-19 can exist on surfaces for up to three days in warm temperatures, and it spreads from stool material (careful in those public bathrooms).

 

So, the spreading affect is dramatic. Many experts predict that China will have another outbreak in a different area, and the Chinese government I'd say did a fine job of containing what they had. You couldn't ask for better. So I just don't think it's justified to blame governments for the spread. Don't blame anyone. It's here. So take special care of yourself and your loved ones, and stay positive and don't be afraid. Stress is not good for your immunity!

 

It's a battle we all have to fight. So don't worry about being drafted, you're already recruited.

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And you know what y'all, I'm looking into the Spanish flu and I'm having a hard finding evidence of 'downplaying' by governments. I'm finding quite the opposite - there's all kinds of historical signs and warnings of the flu from that time all over the internet. And I find it hard to believe that war time efforts here in he US spread the virus worldwide. The estimates say 675,000 Americans died, and 50-70 million world wide! The flu also suddenly just stopped, which means people eventually developed immunity from exposure.

So any help to reliable sources for the Spanish flu would be appreciated.

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I actually went looking into the 1918 Spanish flu a while back, as it was truly scary.  I was a bit tired of people downplaying the flu to much (kind-of the opposite to C-19).

 

Recently, they actually managed to get a sample from one of the victims, in Alaska, where it as preserved.  It turns out to be a very baseline strain of Influenza, and was a particularly lethal one.  Combine that with world events, and limited medical knowledge, and it killed more people in that one year than died in WWI.  It killed a significant percentage of the world population.  C-19 is bad, but it's not that lethal.  MERS had a much higher lethal effect.  C-19 is going to be a bad flu season, but unfortunately, without the season, limitation.

 

With that, I'm going to hunker down into my toilet paper fortress and hide!   ... Oh crap, I did't get any TP.  Oh no crapping allowed then...

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Posted (edited)

I'm having a hard finding evidence of 'downplaying' by governments. I'm finding quite the opposite"

 

PBS is a good, reliable reference and usually does their homework before reporting on historical events like the 1918 flu. See the video interview:

 

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/influenza-author-interview-dr-alfred-crosby/

 

Dr. Alfred Crosby, author of Epidemic and Peace 1918: America's Forgotten Pandemic, spoke with PBS American Experience in 1997. He points out health officials and politicians would not even talk about it at the time, and this is synonymous with information blackout. If the politicians don't acknowledge it then there is nothing to report in the media.

 

We weren't the only country doing this though.  Britain, Germany and France were also doing this due to wartime press censorship as it was considered that the news of the flu would be detrimental to the war effort. The war effort and funding took precedence. See next link.

 

SPANISH FLU WAS NOT REPORTED INITIALLY IN MANY COUNTRIES DUE TO WARTIME CENSORSHIP

https://learnodo-newtonic.com/spanish-flu-facts

 

I think you may find many examples on the internet of a great deal of communication, guidance and warnings given at the local level (like churches, hospitals,etc.) because someone had to deal with the populus and removal of bodies/funerals, but I think the politicians refused to comprehend the full extent of it and therefore ignored it outright. This may have been because there wasn't anything they could do to stop it anyway, at least not at that time.

 

Fortunately our government is far better prepared with the latest advances in the bio-technology to form the tip of the spear to combat this.

Edited by straylight
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Okay so it was initially depressed by governments and for strategic reasons. Thanks for the clarity. Reading the posts above it was easy to get the impression that governments completely ignored it, which was not the case.

 

Still, I'm finding a lot of different takes on what happened and where the experts think it originated.

 

It's simply impossible to find accurate information about history anymore. People are more interested in making their political opponents look bad rather than tell it the way it is. Our academics are among the most bias, and that sure is scary.

 

 

So, we'll see how all this over-reacting is going to pan out for the world. Michigan sent out warnings to all businesses and urged having no meetings, etc. Our colleges are now internet classes only. Everything is shutting down.

 

About the death numbers from Italy...

 

Unlike South Korea and China, Italy is ONLY testing the severely affected, so they actually have a great deal of infected people that are not in their statistical analysis. Experts are now FINALLY saying that Italy was impacted early on but wasn't testing, thus, they have a high death count vs reported infections, but their actual infections could be 100 times higher!

 

The numbers are just not very good right now. Funny how we have to struggle to get the truth even now.

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One more factor to consider in comparing the Spanish flu with Covid-19 (I avoid "C-19" as a name..., that is too fine a PreAmp to be confused... - like Corona Beer...)

 

The two factors: 

1. The Internet.  In 1918, it wasn't there to "inform" people, so today we are more informed, with many more sources of information.  And

2. The Internet.  In 1918, it wasn't there to "MISS-inform" people, so today we are also more miss-informed as a general population unable to filter fact from fiction/hype.

 

...just sayin'.

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47 minutes ago, AndrewJohn said:

One more factor to consider in comparing the Spanish flu with Covid-19 (I avoid "C-19" as a name..., that is too fine a PreAmp to be confused... - like Corona Beer...)

 

The two factors: 

1. The Internet.  In 1918, it wasn't there to "inform" people, so today we are more informed, with many more sources of information.  And

2. The Internet.  In 1918, it wasn't there to "MISS-inform" people, so today we are also more miss-informed as a general population unable to filter fact from fiction/hype.

 

...just sayin'.

 

So true.

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Posted (edited)

We also have had the benefit of 100 years of hindsight for historians to look back and review the historical records from afar and understand from a more informed perspective (outside the emotion of the time period which must have been overwhelming) why the reaction from the government would be so muted.

 

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/influenza-author-interview-dr-alfred-crosby/

 

As Dr. Alfred Crosby said, they really didn't know what to do or how to fully comprehend it. Fair enough. You can understand dying from a bullet but the other was almost unfathomable, especially in the massive numbers that occurred.

 

For anyone who has some time and wants to research this topic a bit more:

 

https://www.amazon.com/Americas-Forgotten-Pandemic-Influenza-1918/dp/0521541751/ref=sr_1_fkmr2_1?keywords=.+Alfred+Crosby%2C+author+of+Epidemic+and+Peace+1918%3A+America's+Forgotten+Pandemic&qid=1584031123&sr=8-1-fkmr2

 

As suggested by member AndrewJohn (thank you!), you may wish to stay off internet and used only published works to guide your quest for truth!

Edited by straylight
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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, straylight said:

We also have had the benefit of 100 years of hindsight for historians to look back and review the historical records from afar and understand from a more informed perspective (outside the emotion of the time period which must have been overwhelming) why the reaction from the government would be so muted.

 

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/influenza-author-interview-dr-alfred-crosby/

 

4 hours ago, straylight said:

As Dr. Alfred Crosby said, they really didn't know what to do or how to fully comprehend it. There was no playbook to go by. Fair enough. You can understand dying from a bullet but the other was almost unfathomable, especially in the massive numbers that occurred.

 

For anyone who has some time and wants to research this topic a bit more:

 

https://www.amazon.com/Americas-Forgotten-Pandemic-Influenza-1918/dp/0521541751/ref=sr_1_fkmr2_1?keywords=.+Alfred+Crosby%2C+author+of+Epidemic+and+Peace+1918%3A+America's+Forgotten+Pandemic&qid=1584031123&sr=8-1-fkmr2

 

As suggested by member AndrewJohn (thank you!), you may wish to stay off the internet and use only published works to guide your quest for truth!

 

The truth is out there..it's knowing when you have finally found it that's so hard!

Edited by straylight
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3 hours ago, Nahash5150 said:

It's simply impossible to find accurate information about history anymore. People are more interested in making their political opponents look bad rather than tell it the way it is. Our academics are among the most bias, and that sure is scary.

I completely agree.  What young people are being "taught" today is political brainwashing to a considerable extent, and sometimes it is based in what brings in the most "research" funding for the "teachers."

4 hours ago, Nahash5150 said:

About the death numbers from Italy...

I just heard from my friend in Verona again.

"Now no one can go outside without a signed form in Italian, explaining why you are outside and where you are going. Only valid reason is to get food or medicine, or traveling home. The streets are deserted, no people, no cars."

The Italians appear to be taking it very seriously now.  

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Posted (edited)
On 3/10/2020 at 11:05 PM, Sk1Bum said:

@Sk1Bum

 

The DJIA is down what, 18-19% including today's rebound? I wonder how many trillions of dollars of wealth just evaporated? 

 

The stock market took a 37% dive during the 1918 flu...we are at minus 28% on the DJIA from recent highs. Today was one of the biggest point drops in history, a one day move of minus 9-10%. 

Edited by straylight

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1 hour ago, Nahash5150 said:

Everybody hang on to your butts...

 

What about Lysol - that's gotta be on the up tick.

 

I can't touch my butt. It's too sore from the ass kicking it's been taking. :( 

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2 hours ago, Nahash5150 said:

What about Lysol - that's gotta be on the up tick.

 

Ouch, man - you have a real mean streak, don't you?  **)) 

 

Why don't we just rub some ghost peppers in, there, too, for good measure?:|:

 

I just went through the symptom list.  I have almost all of them - last time I checked , it was called "getting old and decrepit!"

 

Bet it wont win me the chance for a day off, though.  I can see my bosses telling me to get my @$$ into work. Besides they have toilet paper to keep me safe...

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Brian_at_HHH said:

[…]

Bet it wont win me the chance for a day off, though.  I can see my bosses telling me to get my @$$ into work. Besides they have toilet paper to keep me safe...

 

Don't get me started..., on employers..., C L U E L E S S . . .  Hide in management offices and ivory towers, make workers show up, work the lines..., can you say "community spread?".  Think about this..., your order from Amazon for Clorox wipes or Purell hand sanitizer arrives, but it's covered by the how many sneezes and coughs from order pickers, shippers, prime delivery drivers.  What is it the CDC is saying now, something like: this virus has long-duration surface transmission of 9+ days?.

 

A reputable local expert I trust predicted that every employer with 25 people or more, will have one person diagnosed positive, and will have shared the virus during its pre-symptomatic period of many days, with more than one coworker.  The shut-down at that time, will be severe to industry..., and further effect GDP.  We're not there yet.  Maybe it won't get there, but like the availability of test kits, the alarm to the public to statistically reduce the probability was 4+ weeks late. 

 

Amazon prime same day delivery...?  Maybe not.  I'm not "predicting."  Just laying out a scenario to ponder - just sharing another potential lens to view this through.

Edited by AndrewJohn
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9 hours ago, Brian_at_HHH said:

Ouch, man - you have a real mean streak, don't you?  **)) 

 

 

Actually I'm not mean at all. That was a joke... kinda, I mean Lysol is flying off the shelves down here.

 

Feels bad man.

 

@AndrewJohn Let me give you a different perspective. Viruses adapt and evolve rapidly. Viruses for millions of years have been vital to our own evolution and survival. We even have virus sequences permanently part of our DNA. 

 

Do you remember what happened in North America from smallpox? The natives had no immunity to it at all...their immune systems were unprepared to deal with the evolution of that virus strain from a completely different part of the world.

 

The Spanish Flu had similar consequences. It spread rapidly because of world wide travel, exposing people who had no immunity to it... because of isolation.

 

Isolation from getting infection is far more deadly than getting infections. By getting infections your immune system is constantly learning and adapting to small changes in viral adaptations. 

 

Therefore, a person who has been getting sick every year has a much better chance of survival than a person who out of fear never leaves their house and has not gotten sick for 30 years. 

 

Isolation is deadly. Our immune systems must learn and adapt with the Invaders that try to harm us.

 

Only our immune systems can defeat viruses like this. It's simply part of being alive on this planet and it is important for us to go through it.

 

Furthermore, the statistics reveal that this virus is actually very mild. It's not a challenge at all for our adaptive immune response. Pretty much only the those with health conditions are dying from it. And I'm sure many of them were chronically dehydrated and had a shitty diet. It's well known that people who develop pneumonia from the flu have some serious constipation problems, or go overboard with trying to suppress their cold symptoms, blocking the efficiency of their immune response. 

 

Any doctor will tell you, when treating a pneumonia patient, a delicate balance of suppression, hydration, careful oxygenation and letting the body do it's job is vital for survival. You must not interfere with a person's immune response, because when you do, they will die. Unfortunately, doctors are expected to mitigate symptoms, and they end up killing a lot of people because of it. There's mountains of data revealing this.

 

This situation should humble us to the wonder of nature. We do not, and cannot, control everything.

 

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5 hours ago, AndrewJohn said:

Don't get me started..., on employers..., C L U E L E S S . . .  Hide in management offices and ivory towers, make workers show up, work the lines...

 

I take exception to this. 

 

30+ years in management, and damn right I expect people to show up - that’s how we get work done.  I have ALWAYS worked side by side WITH my people, teaching/training/learning together.  I have spent precious little time in my office (often getting me in trouble with my supervisors), and “ivory tower”? - never seen one of those.

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Posted (edited)

and now for something completely different.....

Image result for and now for something completely different

 

I think the movie was Food inc. (my memory is shit btw) and a family farmer was talking about differences between family and industrial farmming.  He said something like 'as soon as you start thinking of the animals as resources (raw materials) you start thinking about ways to minimize your costs rather than ways to cultivate the creature'

 

So, viruses......necessary evolution driver.......yes, but these things happening lately are a different breed.

 

Many many many , many years ago, humans learned not to shit where they eat, and probably soon after markets started up, humans learned to care for livestock that was to be for sale.

 

Now, with industrial level farming, the animals are in cages stacked above each other, and treated like resources rather than creatures.  The bats at the top of the heap shit down onto the chickens, which shit on the turtles, etc.

 

It's the cross species contamination that's magnitudes greater than any 'normal' viral load.

 

e.g. swine flu.  not deadly to swine, as many have mentioned here, viri exist for a reason.  The problem comes when one animal's desease is passed on to another species.  a virus doesn't intend to kill its host, but when it infects another species, and hasn't adapted to that specie's metabolism yet, it can be very deadly by accident.

 

Most deaths are actually from extreme immune responses from the host (lungs filling with fluid trying to save the host but drowning it, etc.).  It takes a bit for the virus to mutate into a version that will not kill this new environment off.

 

 

Edited by RichP714
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2 hours ago, RichP714 said:

Most deaths are actually from extreme immune responses from the host (lungs filling with fluid trying to save the host but drowning it, etc.).  It takes a bit for the virus to mutate into a version that will not kill this new environment off.

 

Like an allergy. But an allergy is not a typical immune response, it's an abnormal one that is not well understood. Typically, over reactive immune response is related to genetics (we don't have a perfect immune system), a toxic condition (it's well known that sepsis causes abnormal immune response) or Ill health.

 

A cytokine storm, or over-reactive inflammatory response, is basically that the alarms keep going off because there is no result in killing the pathogens (insufficient follow through, weak immune system), or the waste material can't get flushed out (dehydration, constipation). Inflammation is the signal and environment the immune system needs to act. When the immune system is succeeding in its fight with the pathogens, it sends more signals that say 'okay we're good, get rid of the alarms' then inflammation reduces and eventually goes away.

 

This is not to say our sicknesses never need aid. There are many therapies to assist the immune system in its job of flushing out wastes, mitigating inflammation, and uptake of vital nutrients. 

 

But what if all the protein synthesis and antibody trial and error and T cell production can't keep up with the infection? More and more alarms. So it's a sort of hyper immune response, but really it's a weak overall response.

 

The immune system IS the body. An unhealthy body will develop an abnormal immune system. This is the whole principal of cancer diseases. All of them.

 

So while there are extremely rare cases of a relatively healthy person getting pneumonia from a flu due to cytokine storm, most of these cases are because the person is unhealthy. They have underlying diseases or malnourished tissue that can't function properly under a 'crisis'.

 

Moreover, this is one of the more common doctor caused deaths. In order to reduce inflammation from over-reaction, they administer steroids. Steroids suppress immune response, and so the patient dies from sepsis.

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