The Recording Industry Death Spiral

[weitrhino 1,425]

 The following chart shows just how far the sales of recorded music have fallen over the last several years.  While there is no analysis accompanying the chart, there are many notable points of interest that may help define the causes of this decline.  I found it interesting that music sales were already in decline from their peak around 1977 until a new delivery format made it's debut around 1982, the Compact Disc.  Doubtless the huge rise in sales that came after was largely a factor of back catalog reissues and remasters selling along side current releases.

 

I also note the Telecommunications Act of 1996 significantly relaxed broadcast station ownership restrictions which subsequently saw explosive growth at Clear Channel Communications as they consolidated ownership of some 900 radio stations in the USA.  Thereafter, Clear Channel expanded their use of automation when they also acquired Prophet Systems, Inc, maker of the digital Prophet NexGen automation system in 1997 allowing for a radio announcer to appear as if in a local market when in reality he may never have set foot there.  The result of using the same blueprint(s) for such a multitude of radio stations left a 'plain vanilla' flavor heavily applied across the country and stiflingly little variety.  Also by 1997, I submit most of the popular re-releases on CD had already been exhausted ending the meteoric rise in sales with relatively little new music seeing the light of radio severely hampering artist exposure. The public saw less and less on which to spend their hard earned cash while spending time enjoying old favorites in higher quality.  Meanwhile, the slow development of the mp3 file was beginning to take hold in a very public way.

 

Shortly thereafter in 1999 adding insult to injury came the advent of Napster setting off a wave of free music sharing.  Though the use of Napster peaked in 2001 music sales were already in sharp decline.  I submit file sharing activity was not the chief cause for the loss of music sales, rather the afore mentioned factors were along with ever escalating prices for CD's.  The RIAA did not help itself at all with it's vicious pursuit of the file sharing public by suing children, grandmothers, and college students.  In fact, I submit the backlash to the RIAA's draconian tactics simply hastened the pace of file sharing.

 

Where the music industry goes from here is anyone's guess.  It would be interesting if it would unite behind the SACD and DVD-A formats in an attempt to launch another spike in music sales or get squarely behind a high resolution file format and hasten the death of the Redbook CD.  Compelling quality and variety of new music would be necessary to move the public toward these formats, along with some measure of transfer restriction.  A file encoded on a disc in such a way as to only allow for transfer from the disc to a machine, but not between machines, could offer the benefits the industry needs to stay afloat.  Both may ultimately prove too difficult to achieve.

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-recorded-music-revenue-per-capita-2011-2 

 

 

 

[TNRabbit 370]

to pick on just a small piece of your post, I submit that you can get REALLY GOOD recordings on Redbook CD; it's just that practically nobody CARES TO MAKE THEM. I've heard phenomenal recordings made at home by laymen from LP to CD,and equally great CDs made from Master recordings. Why can't/won't the vast majority of industry do the same???

 

 

[PDR 1,192]

I believe the audio industry is failing because of portable crap systems.....

 

I understand the reason portable audio players like ipods are so popular....what I dont understand is why with a lot of the

young people that is their only source, besides car radios, of music.

 

I work and live out of town in a house supplied by the company with 4 other guys...they are 21, 28,29 and 48 yrs old....I'm 50.

The house is furnished.....the first day I brought up a cd player a reciever and some JBLs.....I could listen to music and

have a HT system right in the living room. The young guys thought I was crazy....all that gear. I thought they would enjoy it....nope. They could care less....they walk around all day with those crappy ear plugs from their mp3 players....

 

Not one of them own any kind of audio equipment......it seems odd to me because when I was in my 20s everybody I knew

had some sort of gear to play music.

 

So if this is the best the young people these days can come up with then.....wow.....wonder what the industry is going to look like in 20 yrs.

 

[Maddmaster 957]

The digital generation behind us don't care about reading album or cd covers; who the musicians, song writers and producers are. All they care about is listening to the music. I too have an Ipod but unless you spend alot of money on the earbuds/phones it's like listening to a transistor radio back in the day which I think really sucks. We have always shared music with the introduction of the cassette deck.  They didn't realize that many time that helped sales. You would get something you liked from a friend and just had to have the original. So IMO as far as loosing a sale was a wash. Same goes today with CD's being copied to CDR. I like to have the original but want to know if I like it before I buy it. If a good product is released it sells. How many times have you bought a CD only to find 1 maybe 2 worthy songs on it? That opened the door for Napster, Rhapsody, ITunes and more. $1 per song and pick what you want.

 

The record industry is also it's worse enemy. They worried too much about CD's being burned to CDR. A SACD burner wasn't available and I do not remember one being sold. They could have lowered the selling price and moved the format to SACD or DVD-Audio. They would have been safe for awhile. The SACD's failure was also because it really didn't hit the masses. What's funny is even to this day you can find people that do know what a SACD or DVD-Audio is, much less heard one. The other factor was the cost. The price was so jacked up people would pass it by for a plain old CD version. I know I passed a many of them unless it was something I really wanted. I think I ended up with about 50 of them before it started dying out. It may have a better chance now since HT in a box is cheap enough for most to buy which gives them the speaker setup needed. The sound quality will be lacking but the hardware is there.

[BillD 239]

Actually, there are a lot of factors that are contributing to the decline of the music industry.  Part of the blame is with the record producers that just couldn't see the digital revolution and fought it tooth and nail all the way.  Napster played  a part by distracting these folks from changing mode to protecting mode.  Clearly the internet is where you will, in the future, get your music, liner notes, information on groups, etc.  What is needed is a unfettered distribution channel for the music you want, in a format that suits your tendencies.  I'd be willing to download an album in 24-bit 192kHz FLAC, and pay more for it than the guy that wants it in MP3.  If either Amazon or the iTunes Music Store could negotiate with the labels for that, perhaps everything would be fine.  But I don't see the labels budging off their press and print model — and so crappy music and piracy will prevail.

 

I read Appetite for Self-Destruction by Steve Knopper.  It lays it all out in there, and is an interesting read if you are into the history of the record labels and their heads, but a little tedious at times. 

[sanford lindstrom 35]

I know what you mean. 

 

My daughters (18 and 21) love the music and love listening to our stereo gear and the ability to access our entire music collection in a lossless format via Sonos, this makes our music collection as easy to access as using an Ipod.  They also appreciate the further increased fidelity of LPs.  However in their everyday life, only one of my daughters would consider making the trade offs of dealing with pieces of equipment larger than a breadbox it takes to obtain the increased fidelity versus having an Ipod that is portable and personal.  Neither daughter would never make the trade off of being able to randomly access their music versus the further increased fidelity of a LP.  (Why would you want to listen to more than one song in a row from the same artist?) The extra fidelity is not worth it to them.

 

When they listen to music as an activity as opposed to as background music, they listen to a song for 30 seconds to a minute and it is on to the next song.  Even with music and artists that they love. They have told me that in the time it takes for my wife and I to listen to one song they can listen to 3 to 5 songs and they get more pleasure from the same amount of time than if they only listen to one song completely. 

 

When their friends come over they will listen to our system for hours but they too would not make the trade offs necessary to obtain better quality sound.   They too recognize and are absolutely amazed by good sound, but won't make any sacrifices to space or convenience for better sound. Their listening patterns are in the same 30 second to 1 minute sound bytes with the same explanation of getting more pleasure from multiple songs in the same time period.

 

My friends in college all had better quality sound systems then our kids generation of today.

 

I guess we are all graduating to being old codgers.

 

These trends have to be continued bad news for the music business and equipment manufacturers. 

 

 I find these trends interesting in light of move from regular TV to HDTV which seems counter to what is happening in the music industry.   

 

 

[SteveFord 1,059]

It is true, the teenboppers and 20-somethings don't care about anything other than iPods.

I tried to interst Lynda's kids in my stereos but they neither know nor care.

My purchases are 99% vinyl and CD-Rs nowadays so I guess I'm helping in a very small way.

The decline in music quality hasn't helped matters too much, either.  There's just not all that much out there that interests me enough to buy it.

[oldtexasdog 2,363]

Eventually those "Young ones" will grow up and there ears will want "the sound" and they will find their selves looking for a full sound with quality. Besides it will then be a status symbol.---Woo did I just describe myself-8 tracks and cassets or quad sound ala Montgomery Ward? I did love to play my music LOUD just did not have ear buds to do it with. It's all cyclic.