A friend and I have been writing scripts to download state data, curve fit, and plot. A lot of physics people are doing this. Popular models are SIR and logistics. Looking at cases county by county, one can reach conclusions. In most US counties, the virus is not contained. Containment is a fantasy.
People get infected in clusters or "cells." Somebody in their local cell gets infected and in short order infects many members. Then there are no new infections. After two weeks, another cell gets infected. This indicates a person is still contagious some time after recovery. These people are well enough to get around and go out. Maybe even return to work. And the infection spreads. This is 100% preventable, but there is such incompetence managing this pandemic. People are ill-informed. No gov authority publishes correct rules.
With states opening, there will be a huge 2nd wave. Not because opening is wrong. Because information is poor, and there are always those who think they are the exception. That courtesy of distancing and wearing a mask in public infringes on their freedom. That this pandemic is a hoax. These people cross county lines spreading disease to those who would otherwise be isolated from infection.
The published infection/fatality numbers in state data indicate about 7% fatality rate. A classmate of mine is dead. A friend had it. He read JAMA articles and did all the correct home treatments, as he had no insurance. After 3 weeks he still coughed up a chunk of lung. He's age 43 and recovered. But he never wants it again.
The 1918 pandemic was bad. A cemetery on my way home from work has an entire Spanish Influenza section. Entire families with 1918 termination dates.